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The reprieve following the end of fighting in Gaza is profound. Within Israeli borders, the liberation of the living hostages has led to widespread elation. Across Palestinian territories, celebrations are taking place as up to 2,000 Palestinian detainees begin their release – though anguish remains due to ambiguity about who is being freed and where they will be sent. Throughout Gaza's northern regions, residents can finally go back to dig through rubble for the remains of an believed 10,000 unaccounted-for individuals.

Truce Development Contrary to Prior Uncertainty

Just three weeks ago, the probability of a ceasefire appeared remote. But it has come into force, and on Monday Donald Trump travelled from Jerusalem, where he was hailed in the Knesset, to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. There, he participated in a prestigious diplomatic gathering of over 20 world leaders, including Sir Keir Starmer. The plan for peace initiated there is set to advance at a conference in the UK. The US president, cooperating with international partners, managed to secure this deal happen – despite, not due to, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Dreams of Independence Qualified by Previous Experiences

Expectations that the deal represents the initial move toward Palestinian statehood are understandable – but, considering historical precedent, somewhat optimistic. It lacks a transparent trajectory to sovereignty for Palestinians and endangers dividing, for the near term, Gaza from the West Bank. Furthermore the total ruin this war has caused. The omission of any timeframe for Palestinian self-determination in the US initiative undermines boastful mentions, in his Knesset speech, to the “historic dawn” of a “age of abundance”.

Donald Trump could not resist dividing and personalising the deal in his speech.

In a period of ease – with the freeing of captives, halt in fighting and renewal of aid – he opted to reframe it as a morality play in which he solely reclaimed Israel’s prestige after purported betrayal by former US presidents Obama and Biden. Notwithstanding the Biden administration previously having tried a analogous arrangement: a ceasefire connected with aid delivery and eventual political talks.

Meaningful Agency Vital for Authentic Resolution

A proposal that refuses one side genuine autonomy cannot produce legitimate peace. The ceasefire and humanitarian convoys are to be embraced. But this is not currently policy development. Without processes ensuring Palestinian participation and authority over their own organizations, any deal endangers cementing oppression under the rhetoric of peace.

Humanitarian Priorities and Reconstruction Challenges

Gaza’s people desperately need relief assistance – and food and medicines must be the primary focus. But restoration should not be postponed. Among 60 million tonnes of debris, Palestinians need help repairing homes, learning institutions, healthcare facilities, places of worship and other organizations shattered by Israel’s incursion. For Gaza’s interim government to prosper, monetary resources must arrive promptly and safety deficiencies be filled.

Similar to a great deal of Donald Trump's diplomatic proposal, references to an global peacekeeping unit and a recommended “board of peace” are worryingly ambiguous.

Worldwide Endorsement and Prospective Outcomes

Robust international support for the Palestinian leadership, enabling it to replace Hamas, is likely the most promising possibility. The immense hardship of the previous 24 months means the humanitarian imperative for a settlement to the conflict is potentially more urgent than ever. But although the halt in fighting, the repatriation of the detainees and vow by Hamas to “demilitarise” Gaza should be recognized as favorable developments, Mr Trump’s history offers minimal cause to believe he will fulfill – or consider himself obligated to endeavor. Temporary ease should not be interpreted as that the prospect of a Palestinian state has been brought closer.