🔗 Share this article

After netting nine goals in his first seven Premier League games, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has started the season on fire.

Although this isn't his strongest opening to a campaign - he registered 11 strikes in his first seven games in two seasons ago and ten in the previous campaign - it nevertheless places him three goals ahead in the initial race for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

What makes this none of his nine goals have been spot-kicks makes it even more impressive.

Haaland's Distinct Advantage

Certainly, injury could definitively intervene in the final top scorer outcome, but there are two reasons why Haaland is such a strong favourite for the prize so soon in the campaign.

To begin with, the total of conversions he has thus far netted - and, equally significant, the quantity and caliber of scoring opportunities he's creating.

And second, the slow start his usual rivals for the prize have made.

Expected Goals Analysis

A player's expected goals number (xG) signifies how many goals a English league attacker has typically netted from the total and standard of scoring situations he's encountered.

This isn't a statistic haphazardly selected by statistical experts, but by historical Premier League data.

When examining at players' xG in the English top division so far this term from normal play, the Norway forward is getting so many more quality chances to convert than any other player.

Indeed, even if Haaland didn't excel at converting opportunities than anyone else in the division, he would still have scored more than twice as many goals as everyone else.

Scoring Situation Assessment

This is illustrated by breaking down the number and quality of chances that players have had in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has attempted 29 efforts so far this season, a dozen more than every other footballer.

That is actually not particularly unusual for him - he had actually taken more non-penalty shots at this stage in the last two seasons (30 in 2023-24 and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

However, what's remarkable even by his standards is the standard of scoring situations he has had this campaign. His attempts have had an xG value of 0.27 on average.

This number represents is that attackers have typically netted the attempts he's taken at a 27 percent conversion rate.

Regarding attackers registering at least 10 shots, only Stamford Bridge player Enzo Fernandez has had more straightforward opportunities to net per shot - because of a several close-range conversions against West Ham United and Brighton.

The Norwegian's expected goals of 0.27 per shot is considerably superior than the 0.17 expected goals per attempt he had at the start of last season.

Essentially, the scoring situations he has had in 2025-26 have been significantly more straightforward to find the net from in a realigned Citizens squad than those at the opening of last term.

Previous Season Assessment

Beginning a campaign so powerfully is, as previously stated, not uncommon for Haaland. After seven games last campaign he had netted ten times - four additional compared to every other footballer and six more than Mohamed Salah.

But it was the Anfield star who secured the scoring title with 29 conversions, seven more than the Manchester City striker.

During the current term, while Haaland has opened with incredible momentum, Salah has scored half the number goals and had half the chances (xG) than at this point in the previous campaign.

In fact this has been the least productive beginning to a English top-flight campaign the Egyptian attacker has made.

Challengers' Quiet Beginning

It isn't only Salah who has started slowly either. Upon reviewing at the top 11 scorers in the Premier League last term, Haaland has netted the same number goals as the additional ten attackers collectively so far.

Whether because of injuries - multiple prominent forwards - long-running transfer sagas in Alexander Isak's case or simply because their sides have underperformed (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's likely rivals in the race for the Golden Boot have not fired so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

Even as Haaland seems the distinct favorite for the Premier League scoring title, what about the European top scorer prize that is given to the attacker netting the highest number in the continent's elite divisions?

That competition is far more competitive at this early stage because two elite attackers have likewise begun in excellent condition, with 11 and 9 conversions respectively.

The reality Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the greatest expected goals of the three players without yet taking any from the penalty spot renders him the frontrunner.

However, because the English and French stars are two of the best finishers in European soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the race is certainly on.