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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.