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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."